Eric Snodgrass – crop protection company Nutrien refers to him as their weather wizard – makes a repeat appearance at AgOutlook on December 3. In a visit with the South Dakota Soybean Network in the waning days of October, Snodgrass talked about weather impacting fall fieldwork.
“So harvest will finish,” Snodgrass assured, referring to late season weather issues that commonly delay fieldwork. “It's not going to be this blown open wide windows that make everything easy. And the big concern is going to be let's get the soil temps down enough, which I think we're going to have after about November 4th and 5th. I think we're going to get them down there enough so we can get that fall application of anhydrous or get some of that fall field work done. So, it's not the perfect picture, but it's not a disaster.”
Assembling a Southern Hemisphere agricultural weather forecast, Snodgrass met recently with South American farmers, finding out that by late October, many of the vast farming areas of Brazil were almost finished with planting. Though not the monsoons common in Brazil this time of year, Snodgrass says that growing regions in that country have gotten at least some of the rain they need to get their crop germinated and growing.
“But those folks are worried,” he said. “And they're worried because the Amazon has been dry. In terms of the last, gosh, let's call it 48 years of data that I've got, the Amazon is having its fifth driest September through this point in October on record.”
Meanwhile, Argentina’s spring has been wet and much cooler than normal, holding back crop progress in some areas, but Snodgrass adds that Argentina and Brazil still have a wide planting window ahead.
“What I would just say is this, given where global demand is right now on corn and beans and what the supply looks like, a weather problem in Brazil in December [and] January could very quickly move markets globally,” said Snodgrass adding, “So, I'm going to have to watch it carefully and try to figure out this forecast for them.”
Looking ahead to the spring of 2027 for South Dakota and the surrounding region, Snodgrass cites historical data for the eastern Dakotas associated with very strong, or even so called Super El Niño conditions such as those building for this winter.
A standard El Niño happens every few years when eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures rise near the equator. A Super El Niño is when those water temperatures jump about 3-and-a-half degrees Fahrenheit. The scenario has a global impact on weather, but the general upshot in the U.S. is more rain in the south, less in the north.
“So what I'm concerned about, and this will be the top thing to watch, how do we do with over-winter moisture? And if we end up having plenty and there's snow at the end of the season, fantastic,” said Snodgrass. “If we don't, I'll be concerned about spring drought conditions across the Western Corn Belt and the Upper Midwest.”
Eric Snodgrass is one of the speakers at the South Dakota Soybean Association’s AgOutlook Conference and Trade Show, December 3rd, at the Best Western Ramkota Exhibit Hall in Sioux Falls. There’s more conversation with Snodgrass on an edition of the Soybean Pod, available on most podcast provider platforms and sponsored by South Dakota soybean farmers and the South Dakota Soybean Checkoff.