The question posed in the title is one that market participants utter each year around this time. The answer to that question is usually only known several weeks or even months later when more of the marketing year has unfolded and crop size is determined. As of this writing, December corn had set at least a short-term top at $6.38 per bushel on May 7 while November soybeans put in a high of $14.61 on May 12. Seasonal tendencies can be helpful when used as a guide during times of heightened volatility like 2021 has shown itself to be.
In the wettest year on record for South Dakota, half the cropland in the state that was planted used a cropping system without tillage. That system, no-till farming, has been the predominant cropping system on South Dakota cropland in recent years, but this is the first year the practice was used to plant 50% of the state’s crops.
Although we all wish there was a snap-your-fingers fix for our saturated field conditions, everyone in agriculture will need to go into the year 2020 with eyes wide open to the realities of our wet weather cycle. Some strategic planning in the off-season can help prepare you for how to best approach the coming spring field conditions.
Assistance through the Market Facilitation Program is based on a single county payment rate multiplied by a farm’s total plantings of MFP-eligible crops in aggregate in 2019. Those per-acre payments are not dependent on which of those crops are planted in 2019. A producer’s total payment-eligible plantings cannot exceed total 2018 plantings. County payment rates range from $15 to $150 per acre, depending on the impact of unjustified trade retaliation in that county.
A second agriculture Wetland Mitigation Bank has released credits for purchase through the South Dakota Ag Wetland Exchange (SDAWE). South Dakota Farm Bureau (SDFB) is the sponsor of the SDAWE, which provides ag wetland bank credits for sale to landowners to offset impacts from past or planned wetland conversions.